How to deal with the current politico-economic crisis

By MNS

OPINION | August 04, 2024

The dilemma the nation faces

PAKISTANIS are presently on what can proverbially be termed ‘the horns of a dilemma’. We have a hybrid dispensation that is publicly helmed by Shahbaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), but is actually led by you know who. However, the person a majority of the voters arguably want to see in government is the incarcerated chief of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which according to many analysts actually “won this year’s election”.

The analysts also contend that Mr Khan’s party would not have won the 2018 election had the establishment not extended a helping hand to it under what’s regarded as the ‘Imran Project’. If the country had had a history of holding fair elections, they say, the PML-N would have formed a government after the electoral exercise of 2018 and the PTI after this year’s polls.

Explaining how we messed up everything and got to where we are today is a difficult task as the saga involves a lot of twists and turns; so let’s not discuss that for the time being. That said, the first major problem the nation faces remains how to solve the problem arising out of the need to keep the “country’s most popular party” out of government.

The other major issue is obviously the deep economic crisis that is threatening to turn us into an unviable, and therefore, a pariah state. The severity of this crisis can be gauged from the fact that under this year’s budget 50 per cent of the total outlay will go towards servicing debt (interest payments). This problem has come to a head because we have been living beyond our means since dozens of decades and have taken loans from almost all our friends, including China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, plus the International Monetary Fund (IMF).  

The dilemma that we face, however, is whether or not we have the luxury of striving for political justice and equity in order to stabilise the country politically? What if the economic crisis deepens and we turn into stone the moment we look back (to make amends for political mistakes of the recent past), much like the characters in an Umro Ayyar story?

So, what should we do? Should we go for early election in order to reset the entire system, or strive for bringing about a reconciliation between the PTI and the PML-N (between the PTI and the establishment?), or let the Shahbaz Sharif-led government complete its tenure? The key factors that should be taken into account in order to come up with a satisfactory answer are as follows:

—    The corruption and other cases against the PTI supremo are losing steam. Forcing him to spend time in prison on the basis of weak cases is not advisable. But should we put on the backburner seemingly stronger cases also, like the 190-million-pound scandal against him, for the sake of reconciliation?

—    We have already formalised a bailout package worth $7 billion with the IMF and this programme is slated to run for 37 months. Shouldn’t we refrain from taking any step that may put that deal under jeopardy?

—   The performance of the incumbent Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb seems to be satisfactory, if not excellent. He has kept things under control despite the tough situation obtaining in the country. And by now he has gained considerable experience in handling the economy. So, is it advisable to replace him with another economic or financial expert? (He is not a PML-N nominee but that of the establishment, according to sources. Replacing him with someone else may not be easy, therefore.)

In order to reach an understanding that could be accepted widely, the main stakeholders vis-a-vis today’s crises — namely the establishment, the PTI and the Sharif-led government and its allies — will have to launch negotiations in all sincerity. But before doing so they must realise that each of them will have to make sacrifices for the sake of the country. Unless they render sacrifices the proposed plan will not succeed.

What’s the proposed reconciliation plan, then? Firstly, in order to ensure continuity of the economic measures and allow the finance minister to fully implement reforms in the government’s financial systems, the current dispensation should be allowed to continue until the end of 2025. It will be difficult to convince the PTI supremo on this score, but he will likely relent if he sees hope for the future.

The second plank of the plan will also be a tough nut to crack. The three-year tenure of Gen Asim Munir as the Chief of Army Staff will end on Nov 28, 2025; and that’s the day when he should retire. In other words, he will have to be convinced to not seek an extension in his tenure. The general’s timely retirement will not just set a healthy precedent for the military but also allay the worries the nation has about the future of democracy in the country. (Gen Munir can be given a suitably prestigious position after retirement.)

The third and last plank of the reconciliation plan will be the holding of a fair and transparent general election in early 2026. This means that the PML-N and its allies will have to be persuaded to allow a premature end to their government, which will require a lot of convincing. If you ponder over the three-stage plan you will find that it has something for every stakeholder.

Appropriate laws/acts/resolutions will have to be approved in the parliament to allow for the above plan.   

FOOTNOTE: Somewhere along the route the stakeholders (particularly the establishment) should promise to ensure that all elections in future will be free, fair and transparent. All the steps in this regard, including the enhancing of capacity of the Election Commission of Pakistan, should be taken before the next election.