Analysis: The war games of Netanyahu

Why Haniyeh was killed in Iran?

By The Taurean

ISRAELI prime minister’s extremely cunning but dangerous move of ordering the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iranian capital is aimed at killing several birds with one stone. What’s so cunning about the move? Well, all the immediate outcomes likely to emerge from the murder have just one aim — keeping Benjamin Netanyahu in power for now.

And what are the likely outcomes of the move? For one, Netanyahu has not only managed to eliminate the political chief of Hamas but also kill any prospects of a ceasefire in Gaza in the near term. Earlier this week, some analysts had suggested that a ceasefire could be nearer than thought. Mr Haniyeh’s assassination has put paid to such a possibility. Incidentally, the late Hamas leader was supervising the negotiations.

The elimination of the man seen as a thorn in the side of Israel — especially someone who had come to be regarded as the face of Hamas — will surely give a boost to Netanyahu’s popularity among Israelis in general and extremist and rightwing elements in particular. That’s the second outcome.

Any positive movement in the poll ratings would be a welcome development for the Israeli PM because he lost face on Oct 7 last year, firstly when his administration failed to foresee and thwart the Hamas attacks and secondly when the Israeli forces could not respond as effectively as they were expected to during the assaults themselves.

The aforesaid outcomes seem to be certain; however, there’s another possible outcome that is fraught with much dangers. And that one involves Israel’s number one enemy — Iran. By ordering Mr Haniyeh’s assassination in Iran, Netanyahu has thrown a gauntlet to Tehran. This is the second time he has done so this year; on April 1 he had authorised a deadly air strike on Iran’s Embassy complex in Damascus in which several senior officers of Iranian military were killed.

Iran had vowed to avenge that attack and sure enough on April 13 they attacked Israel directly, sending down over 300 missiles and drones towards the enemy territory. But because Iran had announced the attack beforehand and because forces from Israel plus several allied countries — among them the US, UK and Jordan — were at hand to shoot down most of the missiles, the attack did not cause much damage in Israel.

This time, too, Iran has promised to retaliate with force. In a statement, Supreme Iranian Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that because the attack took place in Tehran, “we consider his revenge as our duty”. New Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country would defend its territorial integrity and honour. This only means that the retaliation will surely come. The only unknown at the moment is when and in what shape.

You may be wondering why on earth is Netanyahu so gung-ho when it comes to matters involving Iran. Well, one reason is obvious; Tehran is allied to both the groups that act as Israel’s chief tormenters, namely Hamas and Hezbollah. The second reason is a more sinister one.

Netanyahu may be looking for a larger, regional war because continued conflict will keep him in power until the violence continues. His calculations tell him that as soon as the ongoing conflicts end the Israeli people will seek to replace his government with a new one. Senior Palestinian leader Mustafa Barghouti certainly agrees with this analysis. He expressed these views immediately after Mr Haniyeh’s assassination and also following the April 1 air strike on Iran’s embassy building in Damascus.

In an interview well-known Israeli journalist Gideon Levy pointed out that Israel has been using violence to silence critics or eliminate adversaries as if it’s a legitimate tool just as, say, diplomacy is. He added that Israel never learns from its history; and so it continues to assassinate its adversaries although doing so hardly changes anything. New soldiers simply take the place of fallen comrades. And the cycle of violence continues.

This leads us to just one conclusion: War clouds are hovering over the Middle East today and the main cause is the devious mindset of a cold, calculating Israeli politician who is willing to risk a mini-world war for the sake of clinging to power at all costs. The only silver lining is, his excesses may be instrumental in exposing the real face of Zionism to more and more people across the world.