Ratings agency says Imran to remain imprisoned, for now

Fitch ratings agency publishes risk report for Pakistan

THE wing of a credible international agency has said that incarcerated former prime minister Imran Khan “will remain imprisoned for the foreseeable future” despite some court judgements that have come in his favour recently. 

In its risks report for Pakistan, the Business Monitor International (BMI), an arm of the Fitch credit ratings agency, said: “Although opposition leader Imran Khan has recently won several legal appeals, we expect that he will remain in prison over the foreseeable future.”

Dawn.com quoted the BMI as adding that analysts were “surprised when judges — who were expected to side with the government — quashed two of the legal cases against Khan”.

The risks report is a comprehensive one and covers macroeconomic and political factors to provide insight into emerging trends in the country.

Mr Khan’s sentence in the Toshakhana reference was suspended on April 1 while he was acquitted by the Islamabad High Court in the cipher case in June. Various courts have also acquitted him in several other cases filed against him since the events of May 9, 2023, following which the state launched a crackdown against him and his party.

An Islamabad district and sessions court had also recently accepted the appeals filed by Mr and his spouse against their conviction in the Iddat case. Shortly after the court acquitted him in this case, however, the National Accountability Bureau re-arrested him and his spouse in a new Toshakhana case, leaving his possible release from prison hanging in the balance.

The ratings agency elaborated that “even in the unlikely event that Pakistan’s usually government-friendly judicial system overturned all of the over 100 charges against Khan, we expect that the government would bring a new case against him rather than allow the popular opposition leader to go free”.

Regarding the International Monetary Fund’s programme, the firm said that it expected the Shehbaz Sharif-led coalition government to “remain in power over the coming 18 months and will succeed in pushing through with IMF-mandated fiscal reforms”.

According to BMI, because the establishment has thrown its weight behind the PML-N and because Mr Khan’s supporters have thus far been unable to mount a largescale protest movement, the sitting government will endure over the medium term.

The company also said the government “is only likely to collapse in the event of a sharp increase in violence or a painful economic crisis prompting a widespread protest movement”. It, however, predicted that fresh elections were unlikely to take place soon.

“Another election would raise the prospect that Khan’s allies would gain a parliamentary majority,” the report said.

On economic reforms, it predicted that Pakistan’s real GDP growth will average 3.5 per cent over the next decade. However, it cautioned that falling agricultural production, currency weakness, and political instability “that caused growth to stall in 2022/23 could easily reoccur”.

Moreover, it expected political risk to “remain elevated, which will put pressure on the rupee”.