Modi faces tough questions as tensions escalate with Pakistan

Regional stability under strain as Trump seems disinterested in resolving crisis

NEWS ANALYSIS

April 26, 2025

FOLLOWING the militant attack in the Uri area of Occupied Kashmir in September 2016, which resulted in the deaths of 19 Indian soldiers, New Delhi launched what it termed “surgical strikes” across the Line of Control in the disputed region, targeting so-called “militant launch pads” in Azad Kashmir. In 2019, after at least 40 paramilitary personnel were killed in Pulwama, Delhi responded with air strikes against an alleged militant camp in Balakot — an operation that was portrayed as ineffective by Pakistan.

In response, Islamabad launched its own air raids, leading to at least one dogfight, the downing of an Indian aircraft, and the brief capture of an Indian pilot. In short, while both sides demonstrated military strength following these attacks, Pakistan seemed to come out on top.

An analyst has noted that, in the aftermath of the above violent events in Occupied Kashmir, air strikes became the expected mode of retaliation for India. After the recent deadly attack on tourists in Pahalgam, India's announcement regarding the Indus Waters Treaty and Pakistan’s “suspension” of the Shimla Agreement are largely seen as symbolic responses; a military response by India, therefore, could very well be the next step for it.

According to The New York Times, however, the last major confrontation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours (in 2019) forced Indian officials to reckon with an uncomfortable truth: India’s vast military was bloated, antiquated, and ill-prepared for imminent threats along its borders. The humiliating downing of an Indian jet by Pakistan had injected a new sense of urgency into India’s modernisation drive.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi subsequently channelled billions of dollars into military upgrades, sought new international partners for arms procurement, and pushed to expand domestic defence manufacturing capacity. Just how much of a difference these efforts have made may soon be put to the test, the newspaper observed. In particular it remains to be seen whether the acquisition in recent years of Rafale jets and other assets by the Indian Air Force has given it the proverbial teeth.  

The daily said the massacre of more than two dozen tourists in the scenic valley has placed Modi under considerable domestic pressure to respond forcefully against Pakistan. Islamabad, for its part, has denied any involvement, suggesting instead that the attack may have been another false flag operation, similar to Pulwama.

In this fraught context, while Modi may wish to react strongly to the killing of 26 tourists in Occupied Kashmir, he could be restrained by concerns over exposing a military that remains in the process of modernisation. In 2018, a parliamentary report categorised 68 per cent of India’s military equipment as “vintage”, 24 per cent as current, and only 8 per cent as state-of-the-art.

Five years later, military officials conceded that insufficient progress had been made, given the scale of the challenge. While the share of modern equipment has nearly doubled due to ongoing reforms, it still remains far short of what is required for a truly modern army, according to parliamentary testimony in 2023. More than half of the equipment remains outdated.

Some analysts say this may explain why Indian authorities have deployed one of their prized naval assets, INS Vikrant, to areas near Pakistani waters in the Arabian Sea. Capable of carrying up to 30 aircraft, including MiG-29K fighter jets and various helicopters, the vessel enhances India's maritime strike capabilities considerably. The deployment of such a potent asset near Pakistani waters serves both as a deterrent and a show of force, signalling India’s readiness to defend its interests.

Analysts point out that, while the Indian Navy is generally regarded as better modernised compared to the Army and Air Force, significant gaps still exist in areas such as submarine warfare and naval aviation. Nevertheless, the induction of INS Vikrant, alongside ongoing efforts to bolster naval infrastructure and fleet modernisation, has considerably strengthened India’s hand at sea.

Some observers, meanwhile, have rightly pointed out that the present tensions are proving to be more perilous than any in the past. The Indus Waters Treaty had withstood three wars and several smaller conflicts but now appears compromised. Additionally, it is suggested that the Shimla Agreement may also have been rendered ineffective.

Another factor distinguishing the current crisis from previous ones is the apparent disinterest of the United States in de-escalating the situation. In past conflicts — including the Kargil crisis — Washington played a crucial role in restoring calm. However, on this occasion, President Trump seems to have hinted that India and Pakistan would have to resolve their differences themselves.

In such circumstances, the political and military leaderships on both sides must think long and hard before embarking on potentially fateful, and possibly catastrophic, decisions.