BJP breaches Kejri’s wall of Delhi

By Nizamuddin Siddiqui

Analysis | Feb 9, 2025

Modi’s party set to form govt in capital territory

Modi’s BJP celebrates first Delhi assembly win in almost 3 decades

ARVIND Kejriwal, the rare Indian political leader who had simply not tasted electoral defeat before, has finally had to face the inevitable. Not only has his Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) lost the Delhi Assembly elections but has fared particularly badly in them. The former chief minister has even lost his own seat in the assembly.

Voting for seats of the Delhi Legislative Assembly took place on Feb 5 and, according to the results announced on Feb 8 by the Election Commission of India, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has won 48 seats while AAP has bagged just 22. In the last elections AAP had won more than 60 seats. The BJP is, therefore, set to form the next government in the Union Territory of Delhi for the first time in almost three decades.

AAP, which led the Delhi government for about a decade, had launched several projects that had been dubbed “freebies” by their rival parties. Such schemes included free transportation facilities for women and free supply of 200 units of electricity to houses. Under Mr Kejriwal’s leadership, the Delhi government also sought to uplift the standards obtaining in state-owned schools and healthcare centres across the Indian capital city.  

As a result of these measures AAP’s popularity skyrocketed initially as it became a symbol of hope and change across the country. But ultimately the incumbency factor and fallout from a number of broken promises caught up with the party’s fortunes.  

Incumbency factor

A key factor in the democratic system of governance is something called the ‘incumbency factor’ which boils down to this; ruling parties have to deliver on promises they make before elections. The longer a party rules a region the longer its list of promises becomes. The party remains popular as long as it continues to fulfil its promises. On the other hand, the opposition parties only have to malign those in government to gain popularity and win elections.  

This is exactly what happened in Mr Kejriwal’s case. He attempted to become a populist leader by claiming to be a ‘common man’; he was expected to cruise around in a Suzuki Wagon-R, wear simple clothes, and live in a middle-class house. But after becoming the chief minister for a second term, he began indulging in rather expensive pursuits. He began driving around in costly SUVs and ordered the building of a lavish residence for chief ministers.

The pictures of the under-construction and pricey house were leaked by BJP leaders on Twitter. What ensued was an ugly spectacle in which BJP accused Mr Kejriwal of misusing taxpayers’ money. This hurt AAP’s popularity in the region which ultimately resulted in the party’s poor showing in the polls.  

Hopes for a clean Yamuna sink

Despite a decade of AAP’s government, the Yamuna still remains amongst the most polluted rivers in the world

“I will clean up the Yamuna (river); if it isn’t clean by 2025 then don’t vote for me,” Mr Kejriwal had said during his first stint in office. He had promised to clean the polluted river to such an extent that “the people of Delhi will go there for picnics”. However, that never came to pass. To this day the Yamuna remains one of the most polluted rivers in the world.

All of this became the fuel that kept the BJP’s campaign machine running full-time during the canvassing period. In short, unwise moves, unmet promises, and relentless pressure from the BJP buried AAP’s hopes for a third term in government.

The incumbency factor had played a big role in last year’s general elections as well. In those elections the BJP was hoping to win more than 400 seats in the 545-seat Lok Sabha, but the same factor had caused the people to deprive the ruling party of a simple majority in the house. Despite the setback, however, Mr Modi managed to become the prime minister for a third time because he managed to form a coalition government that still enjoys a majority in the parliament.

Six months on from the Lok Sabha elections, things are looking up for the BJP after a thumping electoral victory in Delhi. By the same token, however, the going is getting tougher for AAP. Nobody should be surprised if Mr Kejriwal faces even tougher challenges in the near future because he and several of his party colleagues are facing serious allegations of corruption.  

The writer is an author who teaches journalism at the Hamdard Univerity, Karachi